What is contrarianism and why include it in our analytical processes?
We believe contrarian views reveal hidden opportunities and allow our clients to seize them at just the right moment. Think Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Edison, Albert Einstein, Henry Ford, Ray Kroc, Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak, Steve Jobs, Sal Kahn, Elon Musk, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, Bill Gates, Bill and Melinda Gates, Marc Beniof, Howard Shultz, Mark Zuckerberg, Benjamin Siegel, H. Ross Perot, John Rockefeller, Andrew Carnegie, Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger, Sam Walton, Oprah Winfrey, William Hewlett and David Packard, Jerry Yang and David Filo, and Martha Stewart. These individuals are exceptional examples of the type of contrarian thinking that has inspired our analytical processes.
At the heart of our contrarian analytical process is deductive reasoning. Why? Because of the inherent limits of inductive reasoning. Imagine you are a turkey. Every day for 1000 days your owner feeds you. As a turkey, what do you think will happen on day 1001? Naturally, you would assume the owner would continue feeding you, but in fact he kills you. This is the limitation of inductive reasoning.
Contrarian perspectives often solve problems that might be too complex or that no one else wants to solve. And frequently, the resultant solutions are the difference between chasing or being chased. It is important to note, however, that contrarian thinking is decidedly not the same thing as being skeptical. The skeptic initially places everything he or she hears or reads in the “not true” box, with an implied willingness to move things to the “true” box if the accumulated evidence warrants such a transfer. The contrarian, on the other hand, deduces from a body of information, whether something is true or not true.
While Wentworth Zimmerman advisors always offer contrarian alternatives, we are not allergic to conventional tools and analysis. Our contrarian-based processes are not disruptive for disruption sake, but instead are intended to destroy preconceptions. Does this approach run counter to conventional wisdom? No. But it certainly challenges conventional thinking in ways that help our clients see opposite alternatives, not just the obvious ones.
We have a long history of providing results that frequently lead our clients to become their own architects of reinvention. Essentially our approach challenges you to ask “what can it hurt to look at things in the opposite direction?”